Two parallel regimes that should be read together
The European SAF mandate (ReFuelEU Aviation) and the global CORSIA scheme now coexist within a complex architecture. ReFuelEU obliges European fuel suppliers to incorporate a growing share of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) and synthetic SAF, while CORSIA applies to emissions exceeding the 2019 baseline. The roadmap to 2030 is clear in its broad strokes, but the compliance details are still being developed.
What must sit in your 2030 planning
The European regime scales SAF percentages as follows: 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030, 20% by 2035 and 70% by 2050. The percentages apply to fuel supplied at European airports, not to fuel consumed by specific airlines. This means the cost is passed on to the operator through the fuel price, rather than imposed as a direct obligation.
By contrast, CORSIA operates on net emissions: each operator exceeding its baseline must purchase and retire CORSIA Eligible Emissions Units (CEUs). Here, responsibility falls directly on the operator.
Sanctions regime: where the risk lies
The European sanctions regime is severe. Fuel suppliers that fail to meet the required percentages face fines that can reach twice the cost of the SAF they should have supplied. For operators, the most relevant risk is tankering: ReFuelEU expressly prohibits excessive tankering at European airports, defined as uplifting more fuel than reasonable in order to avoid purchasing SAF at the European destination.
CORSIA, in turn, runs on a self-reporting regime with independent verification. Non-compliance can lead to loss of eligibility to operate international routes, a sanction few operators can absorb.
Best practices observed
European operators best managing this transition share three traits: a sustainability unit with a regulatory (not merely technical) profile, SAF offtake contracts secured for 5-10 years with producers, and an internal measurement and reporting system that segregates ReFuelEU CO2 and CORSIA CO2, since these are different calculations with different verifiers.
2030 outlook
The bottleneck in 2030 will not be the SAF percentage (6% is feasible); it will be real availability at secondary airports and price. Operators that sign long-term contracts with green hydrogen and synthetic SAF producers before 2027 will hold a competitive advantage.